Survey Says Rockwood Tax Hike Lacks Adequate Support

A market research company painted a dismal picture for Rockwood School District's passage of a tax increase proposal this November.

"The odds are not with you at the moment for patrons' support for a tax increase," said Rod Wright, a market researcher with UNICOM-ARC. Wright delivered results from a June survey of Rockwood residents to the school board at its Thursday meeting.

Rockwood board president Steve Smith said UNICOM research would help the board make a decision on whether to pursue a November tax hike election.

"You have given us very meaningful advice," Smith said. "When we had to make the decision about putting a tax increase on a November ballot, we only had the October 2010 survey results. These (new) results are better in some respects, and do not necessarily point toward putting the ballot issue off. There are lots of factors to consider."

The research firm's results were based on 500 phone interviews with randomly selected households, based on registered voters' lists. Thursday night's presentation did not include data from the 710 online surveys completed during July.

UNICOM researcher Sharon Gotter said the phone surveys done in June are statistically reliable, due to the random selection, whereas the online data from this month is anecdotal, based on Rockwood residents volunteering their opinions.

"The online survey is another data point, but it cannot be considered scientifically valid," she said.

Gotter said it has been her experience that phone survey respondents are, in general, about 15 percent more than positive than online survey respondents.

"We live in a 'tastes great, less filling' world," Wright told the school board, saying Rockwood residents want quality education, but do not want to pay more for it. He said it has been easier for districts that raise taxes more often than Rockwood to get them passed.

"It's been a long time since you've asked for a tax increase," he said. "But the data does indicate more Rockwood patrons have a growing awareness of the financial challenges the district faces."

Rockwood residents have not voted to raise taxes since a 1994 referendum.

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Wright told board members that parent support for a tax increase needs to be 75 percent to offset what industry researchers call "demographically hyperactive conservative voters." He said leadership for a tax hike needs to come from residents, rather than from board members or administrators.

"Community members are more persuasive," he said. "Voters indicate 'people like me' are at the top of their lists of influencers. There simply is an erosion of credibility of any person's leadership once they move from volunteer to board member."

With 28 percent of voters typically strongly opposed to referendums, Wright said he believed the best-case scenario for Rockwood would be to "drive support for the proposed tax increase 5 to 10 percent higher."

He noted that Rockwood would be paying "the full freight of costs" of a single-issue November election, compared to an April election where ballot costs would be shared.

Compared to other districts for which they survey, Wright said Rockwood garners among the highest levels of praise.

"Next to Rockwood, there's only about one exception and that's Naperville in Chicago. It's the district that most districts like yours look to for best practices," he said. "For Rockwood and its quality, you have a lot of support. It's a shame that doesn't translate into support at the polls."

Wright said the data indicated 43 percent support for a Rockwood tax increase as a starting point. He said the board could expect a 46 to 48 percent favorable vote, but the tax increase likely would not pass unless the board can raise the amount of initial support.

He recommended ramping up the district's two-way communications and public engagement program, which he said he believed was working already.

"You may want to take longer with your communications work," Wright said. "People have to wrestle with the concept of 'they can't have their cake and eat it also.'"